Predicting IPv6 transition

1 Apr

Scott Leibrand's Blog

Recently someone asked if I had any predictions about when/how the world will transition from IPv4 to IPv6.  After writing up my response, I thought it might be worth posting.  If nothing else, this will make it easy to check back in a few years and see how far off I was.  ;-)

So, the only predictions I can make with much confidence are qualitative, not quantitative.  As we’ve expected for awhile now, the the first step in IPv6 transition was always going to be the dual-stacking of major backbones and big content.  That is now essentially complete for the biggest content providers, and others can easily come on board with very little effort (if nothing else, they can put an IPv6-capable CDN like Limelight in front of their website).

But where it really gets interesting is to see where people actually start transitioning *off* of IPv4.  To date the…

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